November 3, 2005

ELECTION 2005

Higher than normal voter turnout expected in special initiative election

Almaden Valley voters get ready for the polls next week

By Sheila Sanchez
Staff Writer

Eight statewide ballot initiatives dealing with a slate of controversial issues—ranging from teacher tenure to reproductive rights—will return voters to the polls during a special election on Nov. 8.

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has officially endorsed Propositions 74, 75, 76 and 77, dealing with teacher tenure, the use of union dues for political purposes, state budget and school funding changes and redistricting, respectively.

The others, Propositions 73, 78, 79 and 80, involving abortion access, prescription drug discounts and regulation of electric service, are also citizen measures allowed on the ballot by state law giving voters a tool to adopt laws and constitutional amendments without the support of the governor or the legislature.

San Jose State University political scientist Larry Gerston explained that the special election came about when Schwarzenegger found himself in a conflict with the legislature’s refusal to adopt a series of reforms he favored. He said the election would raise about $300 million in contributions from different interest groups.

Unimpressed majority
Gerston said the electorate remains unimpressed by the need to have the special election with the latest field poll showing that the public is opposed to the idea of having the election by a 51 to 40 margin, which contributed to the governor’s inability to draw as much support for his initiatives as he might have hoped.

“It will be interesting to see how people who are not generally disposed to the election wind up voting on the issues,” Gerston said.

Last January, Schwarzenegger told the legislature during his State of the State address that he would take his agenda to the public in the form of ballot measures using his personal fortune and huge public star appeal.

Gerston said when the governor made his demands in January his public-approval rating was 65 percent positive, but now his approval rating is in the low 30s. “Clearly his ability to persuade people now may be a lot less than when he first moved forward with the budget,” Gerston said.

Opponents and proponents
With regard to Proposition 78 and 79, Gerston said the first is sponsored by the pharmaceutical industry, while the second one is supported by various unions and consumer and health groups that believe voluntary programs won’t work and who want to come up with a mandatory participation program for the uninsured.

“If you’re the pharmaceutical industry you really don’t care whether Proposition 78 wins or loses as long as Proposition 79 loses. They’ve raised about $100 million trying to defeat it,” Gerston said.

About the three education-based initiatives, Propositions 74, 75 and 76, Gerston said the state’s 300,000 public school teachers have taken them as an attack partly because they feel the governor is eroding the minimum school-funding guarantee known as Proposition 98.

He said with Proposition 75, which prohibits public employee unions, such as the powerful California Teachers Association, from using member dues for political contributions without annual consent from employees, many in the education community see the measure as trying to diminish the role of organized labor. Opponents say there are other ways to balance the state budget without such a draconian across-the-board method.

“It’s interesting that so many different groups have come together because they all feel threatened,” said Gerston.

Proposition 73 amends the California constitution requiring parental notification when a minor seeks an abortion and requires a 48-hour waiting period before the abortion can be performed. Planned Parenthood and the California Nurses Association are against the measure, while many religious groups, such as Focus on the Family and the governor support it.

In Almaden Valley’s 95120 zip code area, 17 polling precincts will open their doors to District 10’s 10,213 registered voters next Tuesday, 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. The area has a high voter turnout rate, Moreles said. They will join more than 22 million registered voters statewide who will have a right to cast a ballot in the election.

And the election will have a direct impact on every resident in the community as local governments will receive smaller revenues if Proposition 76 passes restricting state spending increases and giving the governor more budget clout.

Gerston said public education, which receives 43 percent of the state’s general fund, would be impacted. “Folks at the local level have an awful lot at stake here,” Gerston said. “But they have an opportunity to pass some of these initiatives and make sure taxes stay low. It’s a delicate issue of whether we want lower taxes or whether we want better financed programs. That comes home.”

Any matter that is the subject of legislation can become an initiative measure after supporters successfully satisfy requirements. The total number of registered voters’ signatures needed for such petitions is 598,105 or equal to, at least, 8 percent of the total votes cast for governor at the last gubernatorial election.

Non-candidate special statewide elections are not a common occurrence and often result in a lower voter turnout than in regularly scheduled elections, according to the California Secretary of State Web site.

The Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters is anticipating that 30 percent of registered voters will cast their ballot through the absentee process. Those wishing to take advantage of this benefit had between Oct. 10 and Nov. 1 to request an absentee ballot through the mail. As of this week, about 40,000 registered voters had already returned their absentee ballots. The votes have to still be checked for authenticity and can’t be counted until election night.

Matt Moreles, a spokesman for the Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters, said those needing this useful tool can still obtain absentee ballots by obtaining one in person at the registrar’s main office, at 1555 Berger Drive, Building 2, in San Jose, or cast their votes in advance using their touch-screen voting machines.

Moreles anticipates that between 40 and 45 percent of the county’s 762,551 registered voters will participate in the special election. A recent poll by the Public Policy Institute of California shows that 81 percent of likely voters are closely or somewhat closely following news about the special election, compared with 69 percent in September.

“It’s hard to compare this to other elections because it’s so unique. The initiatives are statewide and have received a lot more attention because of the campaigns working on both sides. There’s more interest so we anticipate a higher turnout,” Moreles said.

Gerston said based on his conversations with Secretary of State Bruce McPherson, who will issue his official voter turnout estimate Friday, voter turnout will be close to 40 percent, slightly higher than the last three initiative-only special election in 1993. The Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters Office will remain open 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Monday through Friday and will be open 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. this weekend to help voters interested in voting absentee or needing additional information or who want to help with the election.

For more information on the special election please log on to www.sccvote.org or call (408) 299-VOTE.