January 10, 2008

Gadget Guru

2008 consumer technology – Evolution over revolution

By James Stout
Special to the Times

Technology years, kicked off by early January’s Consumer Electronics Show, are like wine vintages. Some are clearly better than others and feature real breakthroughs.

This year will take a breather from the technology revolution, but there’s much to be excited about. In 2008, we’ll see many product categories refined to the point where they’re easily usable and affordable. That’s a good thing. In other cases, companies will fall short of the mark but return to get it right in 2009. So, what’s in store for us now?

PCs will be excellent for consumers, as we’ll get more for our money. Expect numerous refinements in the ergonomics and aesthetics on the notebooks and laptops we’ll purchase. All but the cheapest models will be so powerful that vendors will have to compete on connectivity, video and durability. Expect affordable choices in previously pricey 12- to 14-inch notebooks and, possibly, ultra-micro (5- to 7-inch) PCs.

Speaking of displays, let’s talk TVs. Forget about another 30 percent price decrease. Vendors and retailers can’t lose money forever. Expect to see better, thinner TVs at current prices, and don’t be surprised if there’s a price increase in LCD models. There’s a global LCD component shortage that won’t end soon. You’ll see Plasma TV accelerating its exit from the marketplace as leader Panasonic just inked a huge LCD deal to hedge its bets. Plasma will ultimately relegate itself to a video connoisseur’s technology.

In the home entertainment market, expect to see a slew of attractive speakers and all-in-one entertainment systems, which provide credible alternatives to the component stack and five speakers required for traditional home theater. Companies like ZVOX, Definitive and Denon will redefine the category. More of us will have living room systems that value aesthetics and ease of use over male testosterone.

Wireless technology will experience a disappointing year. We’ll continue to be without simple, reliable ways to connect our PC music, pictures and the Internet to our TVs. On the positive side, the industry is aware consumers are fed up after years of empty promises. We should get satisfaction late this year.

GPS will have a banner year as prices for quality products with the right balance of features drop to the $300-$500 range. New receivers, improved maps, and better ergonomics will make this a fun, must have technology for many.

In the picture and movie arena, the best cameras are approaching perfection, but camcorders, as they go tapeless, will be big this year. From high-def to YouTube models, you’ll see a renaissance in the category.

Wrapping up with phones and music players, expect to see more affordable phones, which balance business and entertainment needs while simplifying their use. This includes iPhones, Treos and Blackberries. Too many “almost there” products” were launched in 2007. Finally, keep an eye on Microsoft’s Zune players, these are credible iPod alternatives, and are ready to challenge the ‘Pod/iTunes monopoly.

Future columns will give you a closer view into each of these categories. Make it a great 2008 and celebrate your Digital Lifestyle.

James Stout, owner of Bay Area Gadgets, creates home entertainment and home office solutions for valley residents. Your questions and comments are welcome at (408) 393-4779 or by e-mail at james@bayareagadgets.com.